One mans opinion:
The Republican Establishment, Mainstream Media (Drive-
So what’s the beef with “The Donald”? Take your pick. Conservative intellectuals are not convinced of Trump’s Bona Fides as a conservative. Moderates are appalled by his blunt talk and radical, if on occasion, undefined solutions. Establishment types wring their hands over how much influence they will have in such an administration and also are concerned that without “expanding the base”, they will not win.
Despite this and predictions that Trump’s campaign was close to collapse, he holds steady in his numbers in virtually any poll anybody runs. Somewhere around twenty to thirty percent of the Republican base loves Trump. Those numbers could change, including getting larger. In general polls he’s even in striking distance to HRC.
A close examination of the Establishment argument holds that the “Tea Party” Republicans are dead and buried and Republican Party must win with a part of the suffrage that it hasn’t done all that well with in the best of times. Never mind that without around 20 percent of the Party with them, it’s difficult to see how they could attract enough other votes for victory.
So of course they agonize over Trump running as a Third Party candidate. This would spell disaster. But how about if Trump doesn’t run Third Party? What if enough of the conservative and populist base of the Republican Party just takes a walk on Election Day and ignores a candidate they don’t like. Say a Jeb Bush. Can the Republican Party attract enough other voters to make up for their loss? I think not. Ponder again Republican Wonks.